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3 Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis!

Friday, March 20, 2020
by Christie Cannon

Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis

Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis | MyKCM
 

In times of uncertainty, one of the best things we can do to ease our fears is to educate ourselves with research, facts, and data. Digging into past experiences by reviewing historical trends and understanding the peaks and valleys of what’s come before us is one of the many ways we can confidently evaluate any situation. With concerns of a global recession on everyone’s minds today, it’s important to take an objective look at what has transpired over the years and how the housing market has successfully weathered these storms.

1. The Market Today Is Vastly Different from 2008

We all remember 2008. This is not 2008. Today’s market conditions are far from the time when housing was a key factor that triggered a recession. From easy-to-access mortgages to skyrocketing home price appreciation, a surplus of inventory, excessive equity-tapping, and more – we’re not where we were 12 years ago. None of those factors are in play today. Rest assured, housing is not a catalyst that could spiral us back to that time or place.

According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, if there is a recession:

"It will be different than the Great Recession. Things unraveled pretty quickly, and then the recovery was pretty slow. I would expect this to be milder. There's no dysfunction in the banking system, we don't have many households who are overleveraged with their mortgage payments and are potentially in trouble."

In addition, the Goldman Sachs GDP Forecast released this week indicates that although there is no growth anticipated immediately, gains are forecasted heading into the second half of this year and getting even stronger in early 2021.Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis | MyKCMBoth of these expert sources indicate this is a momentary event in time, not a collapse of the financial industry. It is a drop that will rebound quickly, a stark difference to the crash of 2008 that failed to get back to a sense of normal for almost four years. Although it poses plenty of near-term financial challenges, a potential recession this year is not a repeat of the long-term housing market crash we remember all too well.

2. A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

Next, take a look at the past five recessions in U.S. history. Home values actually appreciated in three of them. It is true that they sank by almost 20% during the last recession, but as we’ve identified above, 2008 presented different circumstances. In the four previous recessions, home values depreciated only once (by less than 2%). In the other three, residential real estate values increased by 3.5%, 6.1%, and 6.6% (see below):Three Reasons Why This Is Not a Housing Crisis | MyKCM

3. We Can Be Confident About What We Know

Concerns about the global impact COVID-19 will have on the economy are real. And they’re scary, as the health and wellness of our friends, families, and loved ones are high on everyone’s emotional radar.

According to Bloomberg,

“Several economists made clear that the extent of the economic wreckage will depend on factors such as how long the virus lasts, whether governments will loosen fiscal policy enough and can markets avoid freezing up.”

That said, we can be confident that, while we don’t know the exact impact the virus will have on the housing market, we do know that housing isn’t the driver.

The reasons we move – marriage, children, job changes, retirement, etc. – are steadfast parts of life. As noted in a recent piece in the New York Times, “Everyone needs someplace to live.” That won’t change.

Bottom Line

Concerns about a recession are real, but housing isn’t the driver. If you have questions about what it means for your family’s homebuying or selling plans, let’s connect to discuss your needs.

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Grandscape: Shopping, drinking and playing will be different in new $1.5 billion retail center

Tuesday, January 14, 2020
by Christie Cannon
Construction continues for a fountain courtyard that will feature a light show with surround sound at the Grandscape in The Colony.
Construction continues for a fountain courtyard that will feature a light show with surround sound at the Grandscape in The Colony.(Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

By Maria Halkias

Being last is sometimes a sweet spot.

That’s what Jeff Lind, president of Grandscape, a $1.5 billion development along State Highway 121 in The Colony, is hoping.

Other multibillion-dollar developments — one after another, shiny and bright from Legacy West in Plano to The Star in Frisco — entice residents to come out and meet friends and family in new entertainment and shopping environments.

At the same time, the malls in the neighborhood — Stonebriar Centre in Frisco and the Shops at Willow Bend in Plano — have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to add a wing of restaurants, multiple kid venues, a luxury gym and a high-rise hotel.

Now there’s one more new destination for eating, drinking, playing and shopping coming to the growing neighborhoods fanning east and west of the Dallas North Tollway.

“We’re trying to be very different," said Lind, who is leading Grandscape, a project next to Nebraska Furniture Mart that’s part of Warren Buffett’s expansive Berkshire Hathaway. "We wanted to create a space that’s different from other lifestyle centers in the area and to give people reasons to keep coming back.”

Grandscape, which will start to open in March and April, is not like any development in the Dallas area. Almost all the restaurants and stores, big and small, are new to the market.

“I really think this is going to be the first destination up north that will get people from down in Dallas to visit,” said Dan Bradley, who owns T-shirt and gift shop Bullzerk. He’s an exception at Grandscape as a familiar retailer, with six stores in Dallas-Fort Worth.

The D-FW retail real estate market is still considered overbuilt, but there’s been less new construction in recent years, and occupancy rates have been rising.

Grandscape is being built for “future growth in the region,” Lind said.

Instead of turning leasing over to another company, Lind and marketing director Katie Wedekind, both Nebraska Furniture Mart veterans, became the leasing agents. Lind alone clocked 288,000 air miles last year traveling the world to discover new tenants and ways to make Grandscape unique.

Here’s what they came up with.

Multiple levels, 433 acres

Grandscape, which has been in the works since Nebraska Furniture Mart opened in 2015, will operate on multiple levels with lush landscaping, water venues, digital features and lots of places to sit in a pedestrian-friendly layout.

 

The entire property is 433 acres. NFM, which the furniture store is now calling itself, has attracted restaurants and hotels on its west side. That area takes up about 100 acres.

Scheels is a sporting goods and entertainment venue at Grandscape.
Scheels is a sporting goods and entertainment venue at Grandscape.(Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

The Grandscape shopping center, just east of NFM, is on 125 more acres, including a 7-acre man-made lake with restaurants bordering it.

It’s anchored by three additional big-box tenants that are not as big as NFM but almost:

  • Andretti’s Indoor Karting & Games is 110,300 square feet and has three indoor tracks, bowling lanes, an arcade, restaurants and bars on two levels.
  • Scheels, at 331,000 square feet, is a supersized sporting goods store with a 65-foot Ferris wheel inside with 16 cars on it.
  • The 85,000-square-foot Galaxy Theatres 15-screen venue that will open this spring is like only one other that Sony has built, in Las Vegas.

While the giant NFM furniture store, at 560,000 square feet, is hard to miss, Grandscape has been designed to disguise its big boxes and “foster more interesting walks across the shopping center,” Lind said.

To prevent boring long stretches across the front of Andretti’s, Scheels and the Galaxy theater, smaller spaces were built on either side of their entrances for shops and restaurants.

“No one wants to walk across the front of a 300-foot building,” Lind said.

The Homestead area of Grandscape features small buildings with local tenants.
The Homestead area of Grandscape features small buildings with local tenants. (Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

‘Something for everybody’

 

The development has six courtyards.

One of them, the Homestead, is a new idea for shopping centers. It’s a rustic collection of small buildings nestled, not lined up, next to an outdoor wine bar with a large fireplace. The dozen businesses occupy spaces as small as 250 square feet.

On paper, the development “looks kind of crazy,” Bullzerk’s Bradley said, “but when you see it, you understand that people can come and really be here all day."

“There’s something for everybody, and it’s not luxury,” which he said Dallas has plenty of. His Bullzerk store will have a $250,000 bus inside that customers can climb into for social media shots and videos.

Construction continues at Grandscape in The Colony. Nebraska Furniture Mart can be seen in the distance.
Construction continues at Grandscape in The Colony. Nebraska Furniture Mart can be seen in the distance. (Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

Other small-business Homestead tenants include Odin Leather Goods, Tyler Kingston Mercantile, Julie’s Sweets and Gnome Cones.

The Lawn section also will be finished this spring. It’s in front of a $4.5 million, 55-foot stage with dressing rooms and three LED digital boards that can be part of an audio/digital experience.

Some parts of the project will still be under construction when it begins to open.

The Grotto will have a courtyard, restaurants and entertainment venues, a water feature and a living wall.
The Grotto will have a courtyard, restaurants and entertainment venues, a water feature and a living wall. (Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

The Grotto section, Lind said, will open later this year. It’s inspired by Covent Garden in London and has a tunnel that leads to a lake with restaurants.

 

When it’s finished, Grandscape will have a couple of dozen restaurants, including Windmills, a restaurant from India with a library-inspired interior design, and Davio’s Northern Italian Steakhouse.

Jeff Lind of Grandscape in The Colony on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Jeff Lind of Grandscape in The Colony on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)(Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)
 
Katie Wedekind of Grandscape in The Colony on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Katie Wedekind of Grandscape in The Colony on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)(Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

A 12-story apartment building is under construction and will open next year with 345 luxury units with lots of amenities, including dog parks and meeting rooms.

 

What Lind calls a fashion section is coming later, with retail shops that will connect NFM with Grandscape.

When it’s finished, the walk from NFM to sporting goods superstore Scheels will be almost the length of six football fields, and the space is designed for stops along the way.

Lind and Wedekind said they kept three ideas always in focus: the environment, technology and a nontraditional merchandise mix.

“We’re not developers," Lind said. “We’re retailers."

Here are the firms that are working on the Grandscape project:

Master plan and design architect: Mark Tweed, HTH Architects (Los Angeles)

Architect of Record: Merriman Anderson Architects (Dallas)

Civil Engineer: Olsson Associates

Construction: VCC, which has moved its Dallas office to Grandscape

Landscape Design: Ochsner Hare & Hare, The Olsson Studio

 

Technology features designed and built by The Barnycz Group of Baltimore

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DFW Ranked as One of the Country's Best Housing Markets!

Wednesday, December 11, 2019
by Christie Cannon

D-FW ranked as one of the country’s best housing markets

Provided by: The Dallas Morning News

D-FW was the only Texas metro to make the best home market list.
D-FW was the only Texas metro to make the best home market list.(Ashley Landis / Staff Photographer)

By Steve Brown

6:58 AM on Dec 11, 2019Dallas-Fort Worth has made it onto the list of U.S. markets real estate agents expect to be the best in the country in the next few years.

The National Association of Realtors in its just-released forecast picked 10 home markets across the nation that it expects to outperform during the next three to five years.

Along with the D-FW area, the Realtors economists picked Charleston, S.C.; Charlotte, N.C.; Colorado Springs; Columbus; Fort Collins, Col.; Las Vegas; Ogden, Utah; Raleigh, N.C., and Tampa.

 
 

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in the new report. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

The Realtors’ study said that strong job growth is driving up prices in the top markets.

“In Ogden, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Raleigh, job growth rose nearly 3%,” the report said.

In the D-FW area, the Realtors found that 75% of recent home moves were by renters.

And looking at relocations to the area, the Realtors said that moves of the moves were from Houston and Los Angeles.

The median age of people who moved to North Texas was 29.
THE REALTORS FOUND THAT THE MEDIAN VALUE OF HOMES BOUGHT BY MOVERS TO THE D-FW AREA WAS $289,700.

Last year more than 550,000 people moved to Texas – most of them coming from California.

Almost 140,000 people moved to the D-FW area last year, with the most relocations to Dallas and Tarrant counties.

Through the first 11 months of 2019, sales of homes in North Texas by real estate agents are up 2 percent year-over-year and median home prices are 3% higher than in the same period of 2018.

The study also looked at where people moving to D-FW come from.
The study also looked at where people moving to D-FW come from.(National Association of Reatlors)
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Photo of Christie Cannon Real Estate
Christie Cannon
Keller Williams Realty
5933 Preston Road #300
Frisco TX 75034
972-215-7747
Fax: 972-215-7748
Send an Email
Keller Williams Frisco - The Christie Cannon Team - http://www.christiecannon.com

 

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