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Dallas Market Has Cooled Off. Don’t Panic.
Monday, September 16, 2019
The Dallas Real Estate Dallas Market Has Cooled Off. Don’t Panic.
Can you say “reversion to the norm”?
Mike and Tracy Voegtle are not getting back into the Dallas housing market anytime soon. Who can blame them? It took months of constant searching for the couple to find their Far North Dallas home back in 2013. That year, the local residential property market was the hottest it had ever been. Cash offers were being made for homes all over the area. Prices soared higher by the day. Supply was limited. Demand seemed endless.
That meant the Voegtles had to drag their three boys to multiple open houses on the weekends and face disappointment as they lost out on the first six houses they bid on. Finally, they landed a four-bedroom, four-bath place near Brentfield Elementary.
As the Dallas housing market has stayed hot in the years since, the Voegtles’ house has appreciated significantly, even though the only major change they have made was putting in a pool. But something else has changed in the Voegtles’ neighborhood. “For Sale” signs are standing on lawns a lot longer than they used to.
“The housing market around us feels like it is slowing down a bit,” says Mike, an architect with Dallas’ 5G Studio. “We’re seeing houses sitting on the market for a long time now, for months, even. That didn’t happen a few years ago.”
In fact, the average days on the market for a house in North Texas is now 53—the highest it has been since the Voegtles bought theirs. That’s just one of the many signs that the once white-hot Dallas housing market has finally begun to cool down.
Strength in the Numbers
Don’t panic. This is not a bust. It is not a crash. If you are a homeowner in the Dallas area, you will not have to start making your belt out of cardboard. Prices overall are still increasing. First-quarter home prices in North Texas increased 1.4 percent over their level in 2018, according to the National Association of Realtors.
That was the smallest price gain in the area since 2011. In 2011, the median home price in North Texas was $150,000. Today, it is $254,300. So if area price increases have slowed, does that mean that $254,300 is something like the top of what has been a huge upward sales market here?
Not according to Zillow. It’s dubbed the Dallas market “cool,” but it’s also calling for a 7.5 percent rise in the median home price this year. That’s only half the 14.2 percent rise last year. But it still means the market is on an upward trajectory.
The reason for that is simple. There are jobs here, and tens of thousands of people are still moving to this area looking to land those jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says 102,500 new jobs were created here in 2018. That helped cut the local unemployment rate to 3.3 percent as this story was going to print—lower than the 3.9 percent national average. There are 3.7 million people in this area going to work every day now.
Some of those people are new. About 130,000 people moved into the Dallas and Fort Worth area just last year alone. Some experts figure that about a third of those people want to buy a house. That’s a lot of new demand on top of whatever demand already existed before those 40,000 people dropped into this market.
The bottom line? “Home prices this year will still probably go up in Dallas-Fort Worth,” says Jim Gaines, chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “But they’re not going up as fast. In economics terms, we call what is happening a ‘reversion to norm.’ The market is going back to its normal pace of activity. Instead of being in a state of exuberance where prices go up 10 percent annually, they’ll return to going up 3 or 4 percent.”
For homeowners, it seems like good news that the demand is still out there and prices are still climbing. But, then, what’s the deal with those lingering “For Sale” signs in Mike Voegtle’s neighborhood?
Price Fatigue
As every Econ 101 student knows (or ought to know), when demand is high and supply is low—both phrases describe the overall North Texas housing market—prices go up. And, sure enough, whether you ask Zillow or the National Association of Realtors or just about anyone else, prices here are continuing to rise.
Don’t panic. This is not a bust. It is not a crash.
Sales, however, are not really going up. In January there were about 15,254 homes listed for sale in a part of the Dallas area that includes Plano and many other northern communities and Irving and other western cities. In April there were about 18,012 homes listed. That, in real estate agent-speak, is about three months of inventory, meaning that, if no new houses were listed for sale for the next three months, the existing level of demand would consume all the current listings and there’d be no more homes left to buy here. There are, of course, new listings coming online all the time—both for new homes and existing homes. Dallas leads the nation in number of new homes under construction. In 2018, construction began on 34,523 new homes here, up almost 3 percent from the year before. Houston ranked second to Dallas with 30,206. No other city reached 30,000 “home starts,” as they’re called.
Even so, Dallas still has only about three months of inventory on hand, well down from levels seen earlier this decade. Said in fewer words: supply is tight. Demand is high. So why are sales flat and why are price increases slowing? Many experts offer the same explanation: the prices are too damn high.
“There has been some price fatigue,” Gaines says. “People are looking at what they’re being asked to pay and there’s a little more resistance from buyers. If they’re not getting exactly what they want, they’re not buying it at all.”
Little wonder, then, that 61 percent of Dallas-area residents (an increasing number of whom are young people in the early phases of their careers) are now renters and not owners.
Jeff Duffey, who runs Jeff Duffey & Associates, a real estate firm that handles both existing and new home sales in Dallas, thinks that too many sellers believe Dallas is experiencing a boom market that gives them total control over pricing. “For example,” he says, “two to three years ago, it was hard to find many homes in North Dallas that were listed between $400,000 and $600,000. Now I can show someone homes for five straight weekends and still not go through all of the active listings in that price range. Sellers who have overpriced their homes or who think they don’t need to go through the trouble to fix up their homes for sale are watching their properties sit on the market. Buyers don’t want those homes and they don’t need them.”
But some potential buyers may also simply not be able to afford what’s on the market in many neighborhoods. Since 2012, prices in the Dallas market are up more than 60 percent. Fitch Ratings, a credit analysis firm, says the Dallas market is one of the more overvalued in the country and that prices are 15 percent higher than what they should be based on the growth of the area’s population, income, and average rental prices. The median income in North Texas has gone up a lot in the last 10 years, jumping from $58,025 to $67,382. That’s 16 percent. Median home prices in the same time period are up 70 percent.
“There are a whole bunch of houses now that are priced in higher price points—price points that a lot of people can’t afford,” says Paige Shipp, regional director in Dallas-Fort Worth for Metrostudy, a real estate research firm.
The National Association of Home Builders has crunched numbers that tell the same story on affordability here. The NAHB puts together a quarterly Housing Opportunity Index—a ranking of the percentage of total homes for sale that are considered affordable to the typical family. In Dallas a decade ago, the NAHB’s Index found that 75.7 percent of the homes were affordable. That rating increased a year later, peaking at 79.9 percent in the first quarter of 2010. But it has fallen sharply in recent years, sinking to just 45.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, then rebounding slightly to 52.4 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Affordability isn’t just a problem in Dallas. It’s a major issue in many big markets today, like San Francisco. Still, the national affordability index average is 61 percent—higher than overall affordability in Dallas.
Builders have started to address buyer concerns about affordability by hanging drywall on thousands of new homes priced between $250,000 and $350,000. Metrostudy says one-quarter of all new home construction in the area is in that price range. A handful of those homes are townhouses located in Dallas. But most are more traditional single-family houses in communities far from the center city, with price points in the $250,000 to $350,000 range.
Examples include Sandbrock Ranch in Aubrey and Union Park in Little Elm—new developments popping up around U.S. 380 in Denton County. “Highway 380 is hot as a firecracker,” says Bill Shaddock, a partner in Shaddock Development Co. and CEO/owner of Capital Title of Texas.
For those who aren’t interested in seeing the pop of that affordable, exurban firecracker—and all the issues of sprawl that go with it—the Dallas area still has plenty to offer buyers and sellers, even as the market reverts to some of its former norms. “This is the first time in my career I’ve been able to say to my sellers that if they do certain things to their homes and are careful with how they price it, they will absolutely sell the home in a week,” Duffey says. “That’s not a guarantee real estate agents are normally willing to make, but I know that the buyers are still out there, and they’re ready to make a deal.”
SOLD!
Here are the hottest and nottest places in North Texas, based on change in median prices.
How Property Taxes Can Impact Your Mortgage Payment
Monday, September 9, 2019
How Property Taxes Can Impact Your Mortgage Payment
When buying a home, taxes are one of the expenses that can make a significant difference in your monthly payment. Do you know how much you might pay for property taxes in your state or local area?
When applying for a mortgage, you’ll see one of two acronyms in your paperwork – P&I or PITI – depending on how you’re including your taxes in your mortgage payment.
P&I stands for Principal and Interest, and both are parts of your monthly mortgage payment that go toward paying off the loan you borrow. PITI stands for Principal, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance, and they’re all important factors to calculate when you want to determine exactly what the cost of your new home will be.
TaxRates.org defines property taxes as,
“A municipal tax levied by counties, cities, or special tax districts on most types of real estate - including homes, businesses, and parcels of land. The amount of property tax owed depends on the appraised fair market value of the property, as determined by the property tax assessor.”
This organization also provides a map showing annual property taxes by state (including the District of Columbia), from lowest to highest, as a percentage of median home value.
The top 5 states with the highest median property taxes are New Jersey, New Hampshire, Texas, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. The states with the lowest median property taxes are Louisiana, Hawaii, Alabama, and Delaware, followed by the District of Columbia.
Bottom Line
Depending on where you live, property taxes can have a big impact on your monthly payment. To make sure your estimated taxes will fall within your desired budget, let’s get together today to determine how the neighborhood or area you choose can make a difference in your overall costs when buying a home.
5 Reasons To Sell This Fall
Wednesday, September 4, 2019
5 Reasons to Sell This Fall
Below are 5 compelling reasons listing your home for sale this fall makes sense.
1. Demand Is Strong
The latest Buyer Traffic Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that buyer demand remains strong throughout the vast majority of the country. These buyers are ready, willing, and able to purchase…and are in the market right now. More often than not, in many areas of the country, multiple buyers are competing with each other to buy the same home.
Take advantage of the buyer activity currently in the market.
2. There Is Less Competition Now
Housing inventory is still under the 6-month supply that is needed for a normal market. This means that in the majority of the country, there are not enough homes for sale to satisfy the number of buyers.
Historically, a homeowner would stay an average of six years in his or her home. Since 2011, that number has hovered between nine and ten years. There is a pent-up desire for many homeowners to move as they were unable to sell over the last few years due to a negative equity situation. As home values continue to appreciate, more and more homeowners will be given the freedom to move.
Many homeowners were reluctant to list their homes over the last couple years, for fear that they would not find a home to move to. That is all changing now as more homes come to market at the higher end. The choices buyers have will continue to increase. Don’t wait until additional inventory comes to market before you decide to sell.
3. The Process Will Be Quicker
Today’s competitive environment has forced buyers to do all they can to stand out from the crowd, including getting pre-approved for their mortgage financing. This makes the entire selling process much faster and simpler, as buyers know exactly what they can afford before shopping for a home. According to Ellie Mae’s latest Origination Insights Report, the time needed to close a loan is 43 days.
4. There Will Never Be a Better Time to Move Up
If your next move will be into a premium or luxury home, now is the time to move up. There is currently ample inventory for sale at higher price ranges. This means if you're planning on selling a starter or trade-up home and moving into your dream home, you’ll be able to do that in the luxury or premium market.
According to CoreLogic, prices are projected to appreciate by 5.2% over the next year. If you’re moving to a higher-priced home, it will wind up costing you more in raw dollars (both in down payment and mortgage) if you wait.
5. It’s Time to Move on with Your Life
Look at the reason you decided to sell in the first place and determine whether it is worth waiting. Is money more important than being with family? Is money more important than having the freedom to go on with your life the way you think you should?
Only you know the answers to these questions. You have the power to take control of the situation by putting your home on the market. Perhaps the time has come for you and your family to move on and start living the life you desire.
That is what is truly important.
A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis
Friday, August 30, 2019
![A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM](https://files.mykcm.com/2019/08/29021439/20190830-MEM-1046x1308.jpg)
Some Highlights:
- There is plenty of talk in the media about a pending economic slowdown.
- The good news is, home values actually increased in 3 of the last 5 U.S. recessions, and decreased by less than 2% in the 4th.
- Many experts predict a potential recession is on the horizon. However, housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate. It will not be a repeat of the crash in the 2008 housing market.
Moving with Kids...
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Top Priorities When Moving with Kids
According to the Pew Research Center, around 37% of U.S students will be going back to school soon and the rest have already started the new academic year. With school-aged children in your home, buying or selling a house can take on a whole different approach when it comes to finding the right size, location, school district, and more.
Recently, the 2019 Moving with Kids Report from the National Association of Realtors®(NAR) studied “the different purchasing habits as well as seller preferences during the home buying and selling process.” This is what they found:
When Purchasing a Home
The major difference between the homebuyers who have children and those who do not is the importance of the neighborhood. In fact, 53% said the quality of the school district is an important factor when purchasing a home, and 50% select neighborhoods by the convenience to the schools.
Buyers with children also purchase larger, detached single-family homes with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms at approximately 2,110 square feet.
Furthermore, 26% noted how childcare expenses delayed the home-buying process and forced additional compromises: 31% in the size of the home, 24% in the price, and 18% in the distance from work.
When Selling a Home
Of those polled, 23% of buyers with children sold their home "very urgently," and 46% indicated "somewhat urgently, within a reasonable time frame." Selling with urgency can pressure sellers to accept offers that are not in their favor. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR explains,
“When buying or selling a home, exercising patience is beneficial, but in some cases – such as facing an upcoming school year or the outgrowing of a home – sellers find themselves rushed and forced to accept a less than ideal offer.”
For sellers with children, 21% want a real estate professional to help them sell the home within a specific time frame, 20% at a competitive price, and 19% to market their home to potential buyers.
Bottom Line
Buying or selling a home can be driven by different priorities when you are also raising a family. If you’re a seller with children and looking to relocate, let’s get together to navigate the process in the most reasonable time frame for you and your family.
The Benefits of Growing Equity in Your Home
Thursday, August 15, 2019
The Benefits of Growing Equity in Your Home
Over the last couple of years, we’ve heard quite a bit about rising home prices. Today, expert projections still forecast continued growth, just at a slower pace. One of the often-overlooked benefits of rising home prices is the positive impact they have on home equity. Let’s break down three ways this is a win for homeowners.
1. Move-Up Opportunity
With the rise in prices, homeowners naturally experience an increase in home equity. According to the Homeowner Equity Insights from CoreLogic,
“In the first quarter of 2019, the average homeowner gained approximately $6,400 in equity during the past year.”
This increase in profit means if homeowners decide to sell, they’ll be able to put their equity to work for them as they make plans to move up into their next home.
2. Gain in Seller’s Profit
ATTOM Data Solutions recently released their Q2 2019 Home Sales Report, indicating the seller’s profit jumped at one of the fastest rates since 2015. They said:
“A look at the national numbers showed that U.S. homeowners who sold in the second quarter of 2019 realized an average home price gain since the original purchase of $67,500...the average home seller gain of $67,500 in Q2 2019 represented an average 33.9 percent return as a percentage of the original purchase price.”
Looking at the amount paid when they bought their homes, and then the amount they received after selling, we can see that some homeowners were able to walk away with a significant gain.
3. Out of a Negative Equity Situation
Negative equity occurs when there is a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt, or both. Many families experienced these challenges over the last decade. According to the same report from CoreLogic,
“U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by a total of nearly $485.7 billion since the first quarter 2018, an increase of 5.6%, year over year.
In the first quarter of 2019, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased…to 2.2 million homes, or 4.1% of all mortgaged properties.”
The good news is, many families have moved beyond a negative equity situation, and no longer owe more on their mortgage than the value of their home.
Bottom Line
If you’re a current homeowner, you may have more equity than you realize. Your equity can open the door to future opportunities, such as moving up to your dream home. Let’s get together to discuss your options and start to put your equity to work for you.
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