Today’s Real Estate Market: The ‘Unicorns’ Have Galloped Off

Comparing real estate metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market. That’s due to possible variability in the market making the comparison less meaningful or accurate. Unpredictable events can have a significant impact on the circumstances and outcomes being compared. 

Comparing this year’s numbers to the two ‘unicorn’ years we just experienced is almost worthless. By ‘unicorn,’ this is the less common definition of the word:

“Something that is greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” 

The pandemic profoundly changed real estate over the last few years. The demand for a home of our own skyrocketed, and people needed a home office and big backyard. 

• Waves of first-time and second-home buyers entered the market.
• Already low mortgage rates were driven to historic lows. 
• The forbearance plan all but eliminated foreclosures.
• Home values reached appreciation levels never seen before.

It was a market that forever had been “greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” A ‘unicorn’ year.

Now, things are getting back to normal. The ‘unicorns’ have galloped off. 

Comparing today’s market to those years makes no sense. Here are three examples: 

Buyer Demand 

If you look at the headlines, you’d think there aren’t any buyers out there. We still sell over 10,000 houses a day in the United States. Of course, buyer demand is down from the two ‘unicorn’ years. But, according to ShowingTime, if we compare it to normal years (2017-2019), we can see that buyer activity is still strong (see graph below):

Home Prices

We can’t compare today’s home price increases to the last couple of years. According to Freddie Mac, 2020 and 2021 each had historic appreciation numbers. Here’s a graph also showing the more normal years (2017-2019):

We can see that we’re returning to more normal home value increases. There were several months of minimal depreciation in the second half of 2022. However, according to Fannie Mae, the market has returned to more normal appreciation in the first quarter of this year.

Foreclosures 

There have already been some startling headlines about the percentage increases in foreclosure filings. Of course, the percentages will be up. They are increases over historically low foreclosure rates. Here’s a graph with information from ATTOM, a property data provider:

There will be an increase over the numbers of the last three years now that the moratorium on foreclosures has ended. There are homeowners who lose their home to foreclosure every year, and it’s heartbreaking for those families. But, if we put the current numbers into perspective, we’ll realize that we’re actually going back to the normal filings from 2017-2019.

Bottom Line

There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.

Homeowners Have Incredible Equity To Leverage Right Now

Even though home prices have moderated over the last year, many homeowners still have an incredible amount of equity. But what is equity? In the simplest terms, equity is the difference between the market value of your home and the amount you owe on your mortgage. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains how your equity grows over time:

“Housing wealth (home equity or net worth) gains are built up through price appreciation and by paying off the mortgage.”

How Your Equity Can Help You Achieve Your Goals

The equity you build up over the years can be used to your advantage when you sell your current house and buy your next home. If you no longer have the space you need, it might be time to move into a larger home. Or it’s possible you have too much space and need something smaller. No matter the situation, your equity can be a powerful tool you can use to help you make a move in today’s market. That’s because it may be some (if not all) of what you need for your down payment on your next home.

And how much equity you have may surprise you. A recent survey from Realtor.com finds many homeowners today estimate they’ve built up a significant amount of equity:

The latest data from CoreLogic helps solidify why homeowners are feeling so good about the equity they’ve likely gained over time. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, says:

“While equity gains contracted in late 2022 due to home price declines in some regions, U.S. homeowners on average still have about $270,000 in equity, nearly $90,000 more than they had at the onset of the pandemic.”

How a Skilled Real Estate Agent Can Help

If you’re looking to leverage your equity to boost your buying power in today’s market, having a trusted agent by your side makes a difference.

A real estate professional can help you better understand the value of your home, so you’ll get a clearer picture of how much equity you likely have. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

“Hiring a skilled real estate agent can give you a realistic estimate of home prices in your area and how to price your current home. Using that figure, you can calculate how much equity you have and what your net proceeds will look like, so you can apply that money toward the down payment and closing costs of your new home.” 

Having a solid understanding of your equity is key when it comes to making decisions about buying or selling your home. A skilled agent can help you navigate the often-complicated process of selling your house and ensure the transaction goes smoothly.

Bottom Line

Today, many homeowners are sitting on a substantial amount of equity, and you may be one of them. Let’s connect so we can estimate how much equity you have and plan how you can use it toward the purchase of your next home.

Why Buying a Home Makes More Sense Than Renting Today

Wondering if you should continue renting or if you should buy a home this year? If so, consider this. Rental affordability is still a challenge and has been for years. That’s because, historically, rents trend up over time. Data from the Census shows rents have been climbing pretty steadily since 1988. 

And, data from the latest rental report from Realtor.com shows rents continue to grow today, even though it’s at a slower pace than we saw at the height of the pandemic:

“In March 2023, the U.S. rental market experienced single-digit growth for the eighth month in a row . . . The median asking rent was $1,732, up by $15 from last month and down by $32 from the peak but is still $354 (25.7%) higher than the same time in 2019 (pre-pandemic).”

With rents much higher now than they were in more normal, pre-pandemic years, owning your home may be a better option, especially if the long-term trend of rents increasing each year continues. In contrast, homeowners with a fixed-rate mortgage can lock in a monthly mortgage payment for the duration of their loan (typically 15-30 years). 

Owning a Home Could Be More Affordable if You Need More Space

The graph below uses national data on the median rental payment from Realtor.com and median mortgage payment from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to compare the two options. As the graph shows, depending on how much space you need, it’s typically more affordable to own than to rent if you need two or more bedrooms:

So, if you’re looking to live somewhere where you have two or more bedrooms to accommodate your household, give you more breathing room to spread out your belongings, or dedicate the extra space to practice your hobbies, it might make sense to consider homeownership.

Homeownership Allows You To Start Building Equity

In addition to shielding you from rising rents and being more affordable when you need more space, owning your home also allows you to start building your own equity, which in turn grows your net worth. 

And, as home values typically rise over time and you pay off your mortgage, you build equity. That equity can set you up for success later on because you can use it to help fuel a move to an even bigger space down the line. That’s why, according to Zonda, the top reason millennial homeowners bought their home over the past year was to build their own equity instead of someone else’s.

Bottom Line

If you’re trying to decide whether to buy a home or continue renting, let’s connect to explore your options. With rents rising, it may make more sense to pursue your dream of homeownership.  

The Power of Pre-Approval

If you’re buying a home this spring, today’s housing market can feel like a challenge. With so few homes on the market right now, plus higher mortgage rates, it’s essential to have a firm grasp on your homebuying budget. You’ll also need a sense of determination to find the right house and act quickly when you go to put in an offer. One thing you can do to help you prepare is to get pre-approved.

To understand why it’s such an important step, you need to know what pre-approval is. As part of the process, a lender looks at your finances to determine what they’d be willing to loan you. From there, your lender will give you a pre-approval letter to help you understand how much money you can borrow.

Freddie Mac explains it like this:

“A pre-approval is an indication from your lender that they are willing to lend you a certain amount of money to buy your future home. . . . Keep in mind that the loan amount in the pre-approval letter is the lender’s maximum offer. Ultimately, you should only borrow an amount you are comfortable repaying.”

Basically, pre-approval gives you critical information about the homebuying process that’ll help you understand how much you may be able to borrow so you have a stronger grasp of your options. And with higher mortgage rates impacting affordability for many buyers today, a solid understanding of your numbers is even more important.

Pre-Approval Helps Show You’re a Serious Buyer

That’s not the only thing pre-approval can do. Another added benefit is it can help a seller feel more confident in your offer because it shows you’re serious about buying their house. And, with sellers seeing a slight increase in the number of offers again this spring, making a strong offer when you find the perfect house is key.

As a recent article from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says:

“If you plan to use a mortgage for your home purchase, preapproval should be among the first steps in your search process. Not only can getting preapproved help you zero in on the right price range, but it can give you a leg up on other buyers, too.”

Bottom Line

Getting pre-approved is an important first step when you’re buying a home. It lets you know what you can borrow for your loan and shows sellers you’re serious. Connect with a local real estate professional and a trusted lender so you have the tools you need to purchase a home in today’s market.

The Big Advantage If You Sell This Spring

Thinking about selling your house? If you’ve been waiting for the right time, it could be now while the supply of homes for sale is so low. HousingWire shares:

“. . . the big question is whether we are finally starting to see the seasonal spring increase in inventory. The answer is no, because active listings fell to a new low last week for 2023 . . .”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) confirms today’s housing inventory is low by looking at the months’ supply of homes on the market. In a balanced market, about a six-month supply is needed. Anything lower is a sellers’ market. And today, the number is much lower:

“Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January and up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February 2022.”

Why Does Low Inventory Make It a Good Time To Sell?

The less inventory there is on the market when you sell, the less competition you’re likely to face from other sellers. That means your house will get more attention from the buyers looking for a home this spring. And since there are significantly more buyers in the market than there are homes for sale, you could even receive more than one offer on your house. Multiple offers are on the rise again (see graph below):  

If you get more than one offer on your house, it becomes a bidding war between buyers – and that means you have greater leverage to sell on your terms. But if you want to maximize the opportunity for a bidding war to spark, be sure to lean on your expert real estate advisor. While we’re still in a strong sellers’ market, it isn’t the frenzy we saw a couple of years ago, and today’s buyers are focused on the houses with the greatest appeal. Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com, explains:

"Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country. So, this spring, it's especially important for sellers to make their homes as attractive as possible to appeal to as many buyers as possible.”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for the right time to sell your house, low inventory this spring sets you up with a big advantage. Let’s connect today to make sure your house is ready to sell. 

How Changing Mortgage Rates Can Affect You

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been bouncing between 6% and 7% this year. If you’ve been on the fence about whether to buy a home or not, it’s helpful to know exactly how a 1%, or even a 0.5%, mortgage rate shift affects your purchasing power.

The chart below helps show the general relationship between mortgage rates and a typical monthly mortgage payment:

Even a 0.5% change can have a big impact on your monthly payment. And since rates have been moving between 6% and 7% for a while now, you can see how it impacts your purchasing power as rates go down.

What This Means for You

You may be tempted to put your homebuying plans on hold in hopes that rates will fall. But that can be risky. No one knows for sure where rates will go from here, and trying to time them for your benefit is tough. Lisa Sturtevant, Housing Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

“It is typically a fool’s errand for a homebuyer to try to time rates in this market . . . But volatility in mortgage rates right now can have a real impact on buyers’ monthly payments.”

That’s why it’s critical to lean on your expert real estate advisors to explore your mortgage options, understand what impacts mortgage rates, and plan your homebuying budget around today’s volatility. They’ll also be able to offer advice tailored to your specific situation and goals, so you have what you need to make an informed decision.

Bottom Line

Your ability to buy a home could be impacted by changing mortgage rates. If you’re thinking about making a move, let’s connect so you have a strong plan in place.

The Best Time to Sell: The Week of April 16-22

Article by: Hannah Jones | realtor.com

Home sellers on the fence waiting for that perfect moment to sell should start preparations, because the best time to list a home in 2023 is approaching quickly. 

The week of April 16-22 is expected to have the ideal balance of housing market conditions that favor home sellers, more so than any other week in the year.

This selection comes from looking at seasonal trends from 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 data. Due to the onset of the pandemic, 2020 was an uncharacteristic year and has therefore been excluded from the analysis. We expect the 2023 housing market to behave similarly to 2021, 2022 and pre-pandemic years in terms of seasonality. Each week was scored based on favorability toward sellers — this included competition from other sellers (active listings and new listings), listing prices, market pace (days on market), likelihood of price reductions, and homebuyer demand (views per property on Realtor.com). Percentile levels for each week were calculated along each metric , and were then averaged together across metrics to determine a Best Time to List score for each week. Rankings for each week were based on these Best Time to List scores.

2022 was yet another remarkable year in housing, with prices reaching record high levels before the market cooled due to wide-spread unaffordability. Mortgage rates started climbing at the beginning of 2022, increasing the cost of financing a home purchase significantly as home price growth continued to accelerate compared to 2021. Home prices peaked at a median listing price of $449,000 nationally in June 2022, and price growth relative to the previous year continued through the end of the year. Red-hot buyer demand cooled around the home price peak as evidenced by fewer pending listings compared to the previous year, as well as homes spending an increased time on market. Though housing demand cooled in 2022 relative to the previous year, homes were still spending significantly less time on market than pre-pandemic, and inventory remained well below pre-pandemic norms. However, sellers responded to this market slowdown by pulling back significantly on new listings. Builders also responded by slowing the rate of single-family home construction starting in February. 

However, as 2022 concluded, mortgage rates fell slightly, enabling some buyers to re-engage with the housing market. Home sellers were less active in January 2023 compared to the previous year, but with home prices just 8.1% higher year-over-year–after a year of double-digit growth, and affordability slightly improved, the spring market could be advantageous for both buyers and sellers.

Benefits of Listing April 16-22, 2023

At a national level, this week represents a balanced selection of market conditions that favor sellers. While it does not have the highest price or the lowest time on market, this week offers higher than average prices and lower than average time on markets while also offering a higher than average number of buyers–measured as viewers per listing. While buyers vastly outnumbered sellers in recent years, we expect to see more balance between buyers and sellers in 2023. In more balanced housing market conditions, we expect the benefits of strategically listing during the most seasonally advantageous week to be greater.

Above-average prices – Homes during this week have historically reached prices 2.1% higher than the average week throughout the year, and are typically 12.1% higher than the start of the year. If 2023 follows the typical seasonal trend, the national median listing price could reach $8,400 above the average week, and $48,000 more than the start of the year.

Above-average buyer demand – The number of buyers looking at a listing can determine how many offers a home gets and how quickly it sells. The more buyers looking at a home, the better for the seller, and in most years buyers start earlier than sellers. Historically, this week garnered 16.4% more views per listing than the typical week, but in 2022 this week got 32.5% more views per listing than the average week throughout the year due to the latter part of the year’s drop off in buyer demand and increase in homes for sale.

Fast market pace – Thanks to above-average demand, homes sell more quickly during this week. Historically, homes actively for sale during this week sold 18.0% faster than the average week. In the fast-moving 2022 market, this week saw homes typically on the market for 32 days, 13 days faster than the year’s average, and 37 days faster than was typical in 2019. The 2023 market is not expected to move as quickly as in 2022, but the best week is still expected to see a more rapid market pace than the year’s typical pace.

Lower competition from other sellers –  A typical inventory trend would mean 9.3% fewer sellers on the market during this week compared to the average week throughout the year. With few exceptions, the number of sellers tends to increase from the beginning of the year until roughly November. Last year saw more significant inventory gains after the first four months as buyer demand cooled, but sellers responded by pulling back on listings once again by the end of the year. Active inventory was 65.5% higher at the start of 2023 versus 2022, but still 43.2% lower than pre-pandemic levels. This gap means there continue to be opportunities for sellers who enter the market this spring.

Market Dynamics Shift – Pent-Up Buyer Demand

Last year, sellers enjoyed sustained demand until mortgage rates caught up to buyers, pushing many out of the market altogether. As a result, inventory climbed and price growth eventually slowed (though continued to be higher than in 2021). For-sale inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels, so sellers can expect demand to return with force as affordability improves.

• • Mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated. Mortgage rates climbed from 3.2% at the beginning of 2022, to more than 7% in November before settling back to 6.42% by the end of the year and have stayed above 6% so far in 2023. We expect mortgage rates to remain elevated through 2023 as the Fed continues its tightening cycle to bring inflation down to 2%. Though the Fed has slowed the rate of rate increases, they continue to emphasize their intent to continue raising rates until the inflation target is in sight. This means that buyers will continue to see high borrowing costs, which may take away from their home budget.
  • Supply does not match up to demand. 2021 saw the highest rates of home construction in the last decade-plus. However, 2022 slowed this trend as builders saw buyer demand dwindle, worsening the home supply gap. Buyer demand has fallen due to increasing unaffordability. While this may limit asking prices, it can benefit sellers who are cashing in on their record-high home equity. Sellers who are also buyers may be able to be more flexible in closing both a sale and a purchase this year.
  • Prices tend to peak later, as does competition. Likewise, sellers should consider that peak prices later in the season also come with greater competition from other sellers for a similar-sized pool of buyers. Historically, by the end of June, while prices reached near-peak levels (+15.0%) compared to the start of the year, new sellers also surged, increasing to nearly 1.5 times higher than at the start of the year (+43.7%). More sellers mean more options for buyers and therefore more competition among sellers. Sellers can mitigate that risk by being an early entry into the market, raising their already high odds of a successful close and likely negotiating favorable terms.
  • Strong Demand for Well-maintained, Fairly-Priced Homes – While overall buyer demand may not be what it was in the past couple of years, many sellers are still seeing competition for homes that are well-priced and move-in ready in prime locations. Buyers feeling the pressure of affordability will likely be choosier and less willing to shell out the big bucks for a less-than-ideal home.

What does this mean for sellers?

While we’ve identified April 16-22 as the best week to list for sellers, the housing market remains undersupplied, so a seller listing a well-priced, move-in ready home is likely to find success. Because spring is generally the high season for real estate activity and buyers are more plentiful earlier rather than later in the year, listing earlier in the spring raises a seller’s odds of a successful sale. Sellers will want to remember that it’s a process. In a recent survey we explored the steps sellers took to prepare their home for sale and how long it took them to get ready.

What does this mean for home buyers?

For buyers who have been facing still-high home prices, and elevated mortgage rates, there is a key takeaway: the usual seasonal dynamics of the housing market, builder sentiment, and seller sentiment suggest that it’s going to get better. Inventory improved in 2022, and continues to grow year-over-year, though lags pre-pandemic levels. However, so far in 2023, seller, builder and buyer sentiment have all improved, signaling that all parties involved are feeling a bit more optimistic about the housing market as we enter the spring. 

Historically, the number of views per listing has cooled in the late summer/early fall and tends to improve for buyers from that point forward. Additionally, by mid-August, the number of sellers with actively-listed homes increased 32% over the beginning of the year, which means more options for buyers. Thus, buyers who can persist in their home searches are likely to catch a bit of a break in the sense that they can expect some more options to choose from in the weeks ahead.

What’s Ahead for Home Prices in 2023

Over the past year, home prices have been a widely debated topic. Some have said we’ll see a massive drop in prices and that this could be a repeat of 2008 – which hasn’t happened. Others have forecasted a real estate market that could see slight appreciation or depreciation depending on the area of the country. And as we get closer to the spring real estate market, experts are continuing to forecast what they believe will happen with home prices this year and beyond.

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:

“While 2023 kicked off on a more optimistic note for the U.S. housing market, recent mortgage rate volatility highlights how much uncertainty remains. Nevertheless, the continued shortage of for-sale homes is likely to keep price declines modest, which are projected to top out at 3% peak to trough.”

Additionally, every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their five-year expectations for future home prices in the United States. Here’s what they said most recently:

So, given this information and what experts are saying about home prices, the question you might be asking is: should I buy a home this spring? Here are three reasons you should consider making a move:

1. Buying a home helps you escape the cycle of rising rents. Over the past several decades, the median price of rent has risen consistently. The bottom line is, rent is going up.
2. Homeownership is a hedge against inflation. A key advantage of homeownership is that it’s one of the best hedges against inflation. When you buy a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you secure your housing payment, so it won’t go up like it would if you rent.
3. Homeownership is a powerful wealth-building tool. The average net worth of a homeowner is $255,000 compared to $6,300 for a renter.

Experts are projecting slight price depreciation in the housing market this year, followed by steady appreciation. Given that, you may be wondering if you should move ahead with buying a home this spring. The decision to purchase a home is best made when you do it knowing all the facts and have an expert on your side.

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