Home Prices: The Difference 5 Years Makes

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

by Christie Cannon

Home Prices: The Difference 5 Years Makes

CoreLogic recently released their Home Price Index Report. One of the key indicators used in the report to determine the health of the housing market was home price appreciation. CoreLogic focused on appreciation from July 2013 to July 2018 to show how prices over the last five years have fared.

The graph below was created to show the 5-year change in price from July 2013 to July 2018 by price range.

As you can see in the graph, the highest price appreciation occurred in the lowest price range with 48% growth, while the highest priced homes appreciated by 25%. This has been greatly fueled by the lack of inventory of homes available at the lower price ranges and high demand from first-time buyers looking to enter the market.

Where were prices expected to go?

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists and asks them to project how residential home prices will appreciate over the next five years for their Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES).

According to the Q3 2014 survey results, national homes prices were projected to increase cumulatively by 19.5% by December 2018. The bulls of the group predicted home prices to rise by 27.8%, while the more cautious bears predicted an appreciation of 11.2%.

Where are prices headed in the next 5 years?

Data from the most recent HPES shows that home prices are expected to increase by 20.0% over the next 5 years. The bulls of the group predict home prices to rise by 31.2%, while the more cautious bears predict an appreciation of 9.3%.

Bottom Line

Every day, thousands of homeowners regain positive equity in their homes. Some homeowners are now experiencing values even greater than those before the Great Recession. If you’re wondering if you have enough equity to sell your house and move on to your dream home, let’s get together to discuss conditions in our neighborhood!

Christie Cannon | REALTOR
The Christie Cannon Team
Keller Williams Realty Frisco
972-215-7747
www.ChristieCannon.com
www.CannonTeamHomes.com

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4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble

Friday, July 27, 2018

by Christie Cannon

4 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Bubble

With home prices continuing to appreciate above historic levels, some are concerned that we may be heading for another housing ‘boom & bust.’ It is important to remember, however, that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are four key metrics that will explain why:

Home Prices
Mortgage Standards
Foreclosure Rates
Housing Affordability

1. HOME PRICES

There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.

Last week, CoreLogic reported that,

“The inflation-adjusted U.S. median sale price in June 2006 was $247,110 (or $199,899 in 2006 dollars), compared with $213,400 in March 2018.” (This is the latest data available.)

2. MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a monthly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Their July Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

3. FORECLOSURE RATES

A major cause of the housing crash last decade was the number of foreclosures that hit the market. They not only increased the supply of homes for sale but were also being sold at 20-50% discounts. Foreclosures helped drive down all home values.

Today, foreclosure numbers are lower than they were before the housing boom. Here are the number of consumers with new foreclosures according to the Federal Reserve’s most recent Household Debt and Credit Report:

2003: 203,320 (earliest reported numbers)
2009: 566,180 (at the valley of the crash)
Today: 76,480

Foreclosures today are less than 40% of what they were in 2003.

4. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Contrary to many headlines, home affordability is better now than it was prior to the last housing boom. In the same article referenced in #1, CoreLogic revealed that in the vast majority of markets, “the inflation-adjusted, principal-and-interest mortgage payments that homebuyers have committed to this year remain much lower than their pre-crisis peaks.”

They went on to explain:

“The main reason the typical mortgage payment remains well below record levels in most of the country is that the average mortgage rate back in June 2006, when the U.S. typical mortgage payment peaked, was about 6.7 percent, compared with an average mortgage rate of about 4.4 percent in March 2018.”

The “price” of a home may be higher, but the “cost” is still below historic norms.

Bottom Line

After using these four key housing metrics to compare today to last decade, we can see that the current market is not anything like that bubble market.

Christie Cannon | REALTOR
The Christie Cannon Team
Keller Williams Realty Frisco
972-215-7747

www.ChristieCannon.com

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Why Wait? Summer is a Great Time to Buy a Home!

Monday, June 4, 2018

by Christie Cannon

4 Reasons Why Summer Is a Great Time to Buy a Home!

Here are four great reasons to consider buying a home today instead of waiting.

1. Prices Will Continue to Rise

CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Insights reports that home prices have appreciated by 7% over the last 12 months. The same report predicts that prices will continue to increase at a rate of 5.2% over the next year.

Home values will continue to appreciate for years. Waiting no longer makes sense.

2. Mortgage Interest Rates Are Projected to Increase

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage have increased by half a percentage point already in 2018 to around 4.5%. Most experts predict that rates will rise over the next 12 months. The Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors are in unison, projecting that rates will increase by nearly a full percentage point by this time next year.

An increase in rates will impact YOUR monthly mortgage payment. A year from now, your housing expense will increase if a mortgage is necessary to buy your next home.

3. Either Way, You Are Paying a Mortgage

There are some renters who have not yet purchased a home because they are uncomfortable taking on the obligation of a mortgage. Everyone should realize that unless you are living with your parents rent-free, you are paying a mortgage – either yours or your landlord’s.

As an owner, your mortgage payment is a form of ‘forced savings’ that allows you to have equity in your home that you can tap into later in life. As a renter, you guarantee your landlord is the person with that equity.

Are you ready to put your housing cost to work for you?

4. It’s Time to Move on with Your Life

The ‘cost’ of a home is determined by two major components: the price of the home and the current mortgage rate. It appears that both are on the rise.

But what if they weren’t? Would you wait?

Look at the actual reason you are buying and decide if it is worth waiting. Whether you want to have a great place for your children to grow up, you want your family to be safer, or you just want to have control over renovations, maybe now is the time to buy.

If the right thing for you and your family is to purchase a home this year, buying sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings.

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Dallas-Fort Worth has lowest risk for home-price declines

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

by Christie Cannon

By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News

The latest home price risk forecast shows that Dallas-Fort Worth is overall the safest place in the country for stable home values.

The latest report by mortgage insurance company PMI Group ranked the D-FW area dead last among the 50 cities it rates for possible declines in home prices.

That means PMI is betting there is less than a 1 percent chance that average home prices here will be lower two years from now.

PMI's summer 2008 risk ranking for D-FW is similar to the insurance company's previous studies.

As in other PMI reports, the U.S. cities with the biggest run-up in home prices in recent years are at the greatest risk for losses.

During the last year, some markets have seen a significant increase in the number of existing single-family homes for sale, PMI chief economist David Berson said in the report.

"Given the magnitude of the inventory overhang, we expect national home price declines to continue into at least 2009," Mr. Berson said.

In North Texas, however, the number of pre-owned homes listed for sale has declined during the last year.

Although PMI Group's report about D-FW home prices should be encouraging, Mr. Berson said that doesn't mean there won't be short-term declines in values.

"It is also an average for a metropolitan area, so individual neighborhoods and houses could behave differently," he said, perhaps considerably so.

PMI SUMMER 2008 PMI U.S. MARKET RISK INDEX

Likelihood of lower home prices in each market in two years.
GREATEST RISK
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.	95.5%
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.	92.2%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla.	91.9%
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.	91.1%
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.	88.1%
LOWEST RISK
Fort Worth	<1%
Dallas	<1%
Pittsburgh	<1%
Houston	<1%
San Antonio	<1%
SOURCE: PMI Group.

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Housing: Best Time to Buy in Four Years

Monday, March 10, 2008

by Christie Cannon

Housing: Best Time to Buy in Four Years

by Les Christie

Tuesday, March 4, 2008 provided by CNN-Money

It may be the best time to buy a house in more than four years.

Home prices have dropped so quickly and so far that valuations - the difference between what a home should cost and its actual price - are the lowest they've been since 2004, according to a report.

The Cleveland-based bank National City Corp., together with financial analysis firm Global Insight, revealed Tuesday that more than 88% of the 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines and improved affordability during the last three months of 2007.

"Housing valuations are almost back to long-term norms," said National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser. He called current affordability "the best in the past four years."

But DeKaser cautioned that home prices could fall even further.

"This isn't to say home price declines are over," he said. "We could move below historic norms. By the end of 2008, housing markets could be broadly under valued."

Prices still improving

There are still 21 housing markets, or 6% of those surveyed, that are severely over valued, including Atlantic City and Madera, Calif. That's down from 56 overvalued markets at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

The report compares actual median home prices with what the authors determine are proper home values based on population density, relative income levels and interest rates, as well as historically observed market premiums or discounts, to determine whether markets are over or under valued.

The report also factors in market intangibles that make some areas more desirable places to live, and more expensive.

"Declines are no longer confined to once-frothy markets," said DeKaser.

The survey covered home valuations during the last three months of 2007, but DeKaser pointed out there's reason to believe that valuations are even more favorable for buyers today.

Price declines have continued into 2008 and interest rates, although they have inched up lately, have been steady or lower compared to late last year. There have even been wage gains; personal income rose 0.5% in December. Soaring foreclosure rates have added inventory to many housing markets, depressing home prices further.

The biggest gains in affordability occurred in California, Michigan and Florida, which are areas that have also been some of the hardest hit by foreclosures. Those states registered 43 of the 50 biggest price declines.

Bend, Ore. currently tops the overvaluation list. Home prices there were judged to be about 59% higher than their fair-market value. Miami, despite a median home price decline of 5.7% last year, is the most overvalued big city, by 44%.

All the best bargains were found in Louisiana and Texas. Houses in Houma, La. were under valued by 31.2%, according to the report. Dallas was the most undervalued big city, by 30%.

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Dallas home prices rise among few U.S. gains

Thursday, November 1, 2007

by Christie Cannon

Dallas home prices rise among few U.S. gains

Industry experts say foreclosures a concern

11:15 AM CDT on Thursday, August 30, 2007

By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com

Dallas is one of the few cities in the nation where home prices are still rising slightly, according to a national housing survey released Tuesday.

While U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, Standard & Poor's quarterly housing index reports that the Dallas metropolitan area was one of only five markets in the country with price gains.

Of the 20 cities it surveys, only Dallas , Seattle , Portland , Ore. , Atlanta and Charlotte , N.C. , had annual gains in home prices in the second quarter.

But it's hard to say whether the 1.6 percent gain in Dallas home prices is sustainable, industry experts say.

Dr. James Gaines of Texas A&M University 's Real Estate Center said "In a lot of places in Dallas , home prices are still going up by double digits.” In other neighborhoods, they are actually falling. But across the board, the gainers outweigh the losers," he said.

As mortgage lenders tighten loan requirements, a significant number of potential homebuyers have been locked out of the market. That could hurt the volume of sales in North Texas in the months ahead.

"It may take awhile to sort out" what's happening in the mortgage market, Dr. William Brueggeman, director of SMU's real estate department said. "There is going to be a little pain and suffering here, but nothing like we are seeing in other markets."

Fewer subprime woes

Dr. Gaines says that even with the soaring foreclosure rates, there have been fewer subprime mortgage problems here.

"The mortgage shakeout is affecting other parts of the country a lot more than it is Texas ," he said. "We didn't have anywhere near the level or magnitude" of subprime loans that other markets did.

But that doesn't mean that Dallas-Fort Worth homeowners aren't going to be hammered with a steady diet of bad news about the U.S. housing market. Those negative reports weigh on consumer psychology.

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Home Prices: The Difference 5 Years Makes