Why It’s Still a Seller’s Market Today

Even though activity in the housing market has slowed from the frenzy that was the ‘unicorn’ years, it’s still a seller’s market because the supply of homes for sale is so low. But what does that really mean for you? And why are conditions today so good if you want to sell your house?

The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Housing inventory is measured by the number of available homes on the market. It’s also measured by months’ supply, meaning the number of months it would take to sell all those available homes based on current demand. In a balanced market, there’s usually about a six-month supply. Today, we have only about 3 months’ supply of homes at the current sales pace (see graph below): 

As the visual shows, given the current inventory of homes, it’s still a seller's market.

Today, we’re nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. In fact, the current months’ supply is half of what’s typical of a normal market. That means there just aren’t enough homes to go around based on today’s buyer demand.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, says:

“There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”

How Does Being in a Seller’s Market Benefit You?

Sellers, these conditions give you a real edge. Right now, there are buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. And, because there's a shortage of homes up for sale, the ones that do hit the market are like magnets for those buyers.

If you work with a local real estate agent to list your house right now, in good condition, and at the right price, it could get a lot of attention. You might even end up with multiple offers.

Bottom Line

Today’s seller’s market sets you up with a big advantage when you sell your house. Because supply is so low, your house will be in the spotlight for motivated buyers who are craving more options. Let’s connect so you understand what’s happening in our local area as you get ready to enter the market.

Homebuyers Are Still More Active Than Usual

Even though the housing market is no longer experiencing the frenzy that was so characteristic of the last couple of years, it doesn’t mean today’s market is at a standstill. In actuality, buyer traffic is still strong today.

The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of how much buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to illustrate buyer activity trends over time to help put today into the proper perspective.

It shows there’s seasonality in real estate. If you look at the last normal years in the market (shown in gray), there was a consistent pattern as buyer activity peaked in the first half of each year (during the peak homebuying season in the spring) and slowed as each year came to a close.

When the pandemic hit in March of 2020, that trend was disrupted as the market responded to the resulting uncertainty (shown in blue in the middle). From there, we entered the ‘unicorn’ years of housing (shown in pink). This is when mortgage rates were record-low and buyer demand was sky high. Similar seasonal trends still existed even during that time, just at much higher levels.

Now, let’s look at 2023. Traffic is down from the previous month and it’s also lower than the peaks we saw in the ‘unicorn’ years. But what’s happening isn’t a steep drop off in demand – it’s a slow return toward more normal seasonality. As the ShowingTime report explains:

“Showing traffic declined about 10% in May . . . This follows a typical seasonal pattern – disrupted by the pandemic but now beginning to return . . .”

And, to highlight this isn’t a drastic decline, let’s zoom in. Here’s a graph using just the May data for the last five years. It shows just how strong buyer demand still is.

What Does That Mean for You?

Buyers are still out there touring homes. They’re more active than they were in May 2022 (when sticker shock over higher mortgage rates started to set in) and certainly more than they were in the last normal years. So, remember, buyer activity is still strong. And it could actually be even stronger if it wasn’t constrained by the limited supply of homes for sale. According to U.S. News:

“Housing markets have cooled slightly, but demand hasn’t disappeared, and in many places remains strong largely due to the shortage of homes on the market.”

Bottom Line

Don’t lose sight of just how active the market still is today. If your house isn’t on the market, it’s not getting in front of all those buyers who are looking to make a purchase right now. Let’s connect to start the process.

The Benefits of Selling Now, According to Experts

If you’re trying to decide if now’s the time to sell your house, here’s what you should know. The limited number of homes available right now gives you a big advantage. That’s because there are more buyers out there than there are homes for sale. And, with so few homes on the market, buyers will have fewer options, so you set yourself up to get the most eyes possible on your house.

Here’s what industry experts are saying about why selling now has its benefits:

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“Inventory levels are still at historic lows. Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:

“We have not seen the traditional uptick in new listings from existing homeowners, so undersupply of housing will continue to heighten market competition and put pressure on prices in most regions. Some markets are already heating up considerably, but price premiums that we saw last spring and summer are unlikely.”

Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com:

“Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country . . .”

Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your house, let’s connect so you have the expert insights you need to make the best possible move today. 

The Power of Pre-Approval

If you’re buying a home this spring, today’s housing market can feel like a challenge. With so few homes on the market right now, plus higher mortgage rates, it’s essential to have a firm grasp on your homebuying budget. You’ll also need a sense of determination to find the right house and act quickly when you go to put in an offer. One thing you can do to help you prepare is to get pre-approved.

To understand why it’s such an important step, you need to know what pre-approval is. As part of the process, a lender looks at your finances to determine what they’d be willing to loan you. From there, your lender will give you a pre-approval letter to help you understand how much money you can borrow.

Freddie Mac explains it like this:

“A pre-approval is an indication from your lender that they are willing to lend you a certain amount of money to buy your future home. . . . Keep in mind that the loan amount in the pre-approval letter is the lender’s maximum offer. Ultimately, you should only borrow an amount you are comfortable repaying.”

Basically, pre-approval gives you critical information about the homebuying process that’ll help you understand how much you may be able to borrow so you have a stronger grasp of your options. And with higher mortgage rates impacting affordability for many buyers today, a solid understanding of your numbers is even more important.

Pre-Approval Helps Show You’re a Serious Buyer

That’s not the only thing pre-approval can do. Another added benefit is it can help a seller feel more confident in your offer because it shows you’re serious about buying their house. And, with sellers seeing a slight increase in the number of offers again this spring, making a strong offer when you find the perfect house is key.

As a recent article from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says:

“If you plan to use a mortgage for your home purchase, preapproval should be among the first steps in your search process. Not only can getting preapproved help you zero in on the right price range, but it can give you a leg up on other buyers, too.”

Bottom Line

Getting pre-approved is an important first step when you’re buying a home. It lets you know what you can borrow for your loan and shows sellers you’re serious. Connect with a local real estate professional and a trusted lender so you have the tools you need to purchase a home in today’s market.

Think Twice Before Waiting for Lower Home Prices

As the housing market continues to change, you may be wondering where it’ll go from here. One factor you’re probably thinking about is home prices, which have come down a bit since they peaked last June. And you’ve likely heard something in the news or on social media about a price crash on the horizon. As a result, you may be holding off on buying a home until prices drop significantly. But that’s not the best strategy.

A recent survey from Zonda shows 53% of millennials are still renting right now because they’re waiting for home prices to come down. But here’s the thing: the most recent data shows that home prices appear to have bottomed out and are now on the rise again. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, reports:

“U.S. home prices rose by 0.8% in February . . . indicating that prices in most markets have already bottomed out.”

And the latest data from Black Knight shows the same shift. The graph below compares home price trends in November to those in February:

So, should you keep waiting to buy a home until prices come down? If you factor in what the experts are saying, you probably shouldn’t. The data shows prices are increasing in much of the country, not decreasing. And the latest data from the Home Price Expectation Survey indicates that experts project home prices will rise steadily and return to more normal levels of appreciation after 2023. The best way to understand what home values are doing in your area is to work with a local real estate professional who can give you the latest insights and expert advice.

Bottom Line

If you’re waiting to buy a home until prices come down, you may want to reconsider. Let’s connect to make sure you understand what’s happening in our local housing market.

The Big Advantage If You Sell This Spring

Thinking about selling your house? If you’ve been waiting for the right time, it could be now while the supply of homes for sale is so low. HousingWire shares:

“. . . the big question is whether we are finally starting to see the seasonal spring increase in inventory. The answer is no, because active listings fell to a new low last week for 2023 . . .”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) confirms today’s housing inventory is low by looking at the months’ supply of homes on the market. In a balanced market, about a six-month supply is needed. Anything lower is a sellers’ market. And today, the number is much lower:

“Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January and up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February 2022.”

Why Does Low Inventory Make It a Good Time To Sell?

The less inventory there is on the market when you sell, the less competition you’re likely to face from other sellers. That means your house will get more attention from the buyers looking for a home this spring. And since there are significantly more buyers in the market than there are homes for sale, you could even receive more than one offer on your house. Multiple offers are on the rise again (see graph below):  

If you get more than one offer on your house, it becomes a bidding war between buyers – and that means you have greater leverage to sell on your terms. But if you want to maximize the opportunity for a bidding war to spark, be sure to lean on your expert real estate advisor. While we’re still in a strong sellers’ market, it isn’t the frenzy we saw a couple of years ago, and today’s buyers are focused on the houses with the greatest appeal. Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com, explains:

"Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country. So, this spring, it's especially important for sellers to make their homes as attractive as possible to appeal to as many buyers as possible.”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for the right time to sell your house, low inventory this spring sets you up with a big advantage. Let’s connect today to make sure your house is ready to sell. 

The Best Time to Sell: The Week of April 16-22

Article by: Hannah Jones | realtor.com

Home sellers on the fence waiting for that perfect moment to sell should start preparations, because the best time to list a home in 2023 is approaching quickly. 

The week of April 16-22 is expected to have the ideal balance of housing market conditions that favor home sellers, more so than any other week in the year.

This selection comes from looking at seasonal trends from 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 data. Due to the onset of the pandemic, 2020 was an uncharacteristic year and has therefore been excluded from the analysis. We expect the 2023 housing market to behave similarly to 2021, 2022 and pre-pandemic years in terms of seasonality. Each week was scored based on favorability toward sellers — this included competition from other sellers (active listings and new listings), listing prices, market pace (days on market), likelihood of price reductions, and homebuyer demand (views per property on Realtor.com). Percentile levels for each week were calculated along each metric , and were then averaged together across metrics to determine a Best Time to List score for each week. Rankings for each week were based on these Best Time to List scores.

2022 was yet another remarkable year in housing, with prices reaching record high levels before the market cooled due to wide-spread unaffordability. Mortgage rates started climbing at the beginning of 2022, increasing the cost of financing a home purchase significantly as home price growth continued to accelerate compared to 2021. Home prices peaked at a median listing price of $449,000 nationally in June 2022, and price growth relative to the previous year continued through the end of the year. Red-hot buyer demand cooled around the home price peak as evidenced by fewer pending listings compared to the previous year, as well as homes spending an increased time on market. Though housing demand cooled in 2022 relative to the previous year, homes were still spending significantly less time on market than pre-pandemic, and inventory remained well below pre-pandemic norms. However, sellers responded to this market slowdown by pulling back significantly on new listings. Builders also responded by slowing the rate of single-family home construction starting in February. 

However, as 2022 concluded, mortgage rates fell slightly, enabling some buyers to re-engage with the housing market. Home sellers were less active in January 2023 compared to the previous year, but with home prices just 8.1% higher year-over-year–after a year of double-digit growth, and affordability slightly improved, the spring market could be advantageous for both buyers and sellers.

Benefits of Listing April 16-22, 2023

At a national level, this week represents a balanced selection of market conditions that favor sellers. While it does not have the highest price or the lowest time on market, this week offers higher than average prices and lower than average time on markets while also offering a higher than average number of buyers–measured as viewers per listing. While buyers vastly outnumbered sellers in recent years, we expect to see more balance between buyers and sellers in 2023. In more balanced housing market conditions, we expect the benefits of strategically listing during the most seasonally advantageous week to be greater.

Above-average prices – Homes during this week have historically reached prices 2.1% higher than the average week throughout the year, and are typically 12.1% higher than the start of the year. If 2023 follows the typical seasonal trend, the national median listing price could reach $8,400 above the average week, and $48,000 more than the start of the year.

Above-average buyer demand – The number of buyers looking at a listing can determine how many offers a home gets and how quickly it sells. The more buyers looking at a home, the better for the seller, and in most years buyers start earlier than sellers. Historically, this week garnered 16.4% more views per listing than the typical week, but in 2022 this week got 32.5% more views per listing than the average week throughout the year due to the latter part of the year’s drop off in buyer demand and increase in homes for sale.

Fast market pace – Thanks to above-average demand, homes sell more quickly during this week. Historically, homes actively for sale during this week sold 18.0% faster than the average week. In the fast-moving 2022 market, this week saw homes typically on the market for 32 days, 13 days faster than the year’s average, and 37 days faster than was typical in 2019. The 2023 market is not expected to move as quickly as in 2022, but the best week is still expected to see a more rapid market pace than the year’s typical pace.

Lower competition from other sellers –  A typical inventory trend would mean 9.3% fewer sellers on the market during this week compared to the average week throughout the year. With few exceptions, the number of sellers tends to increase from the beginning of the year until roughly November. Last year saw more significant inventory gains after the first four months as buyer demand cooled, but sellers responded by pulling back on listings once again by the end of the year. Active inventory was 65.5% higher at the start of 2023 versus 2022, but still 43.2% lower than pre-pandemic levels. This gap means there continue to be opportunities for sellers who enter the market this spring.

Market Dynamics Shift – Pent-Up Buyer Demand

Last year, sellers enjoyed sustained demand until mortgage rates caught up to buyers, pushing many out of the market altogether. As a result, inventory climbed and price growth eventually slowed (though continued to be higher than in 2021). For-sale inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels, so sellers can expect demand to return with force as affordability improves.

• • Mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated. Mortgage rates climbed from 3.2% at the beginning of 2022, to more than 7% in November before settling back to 6.42% by the end of the year and have stayed above 6% so far in 2023. We expect mortgage rates to remain elevated through 2023 as the Fed continues its tightening cycle to bring inflation down to 2%. Though the Fed has slowed the rate of rate increases, they continue to emphasize their intent to continue raising rates until the inflation target is in sight. This means that buyers will continue to see high borrowing costs, which may take away from their home budget.
  • Supply does not match up to demand. 2021 saw the highest rates of home construction in the last decade-plus. However, 2022 slowed this trend as builders saw buyer demand dwindle, worsening the home supply gap. Buyer demand has fallen due to increasing unaffordability. While this may limit asking prices, it can benefit sellers who are cashing in on their record-high home equity. Sellers who are also buyers may be able to be more flexible in closing both a sale and a purchase this year.
  • Prices tend to peak later, as does competition. Likewise, sellers should consider that peak prices later in the season also come with greater competition from other sellers for a similar-sized pool of buyers. Historically, by the end of June, while prices reached near-peak levels (+15.0%) compared to the start of the year, new sellers also surged, increasing to nearly 1.5 times higher than at the start of the year (+43.7%). More sellers mean more options for buyers and therefore more competition among sellers. Sellers can mitigate that risk by being an early entry into the market, raising their already high odds of a successful close and likely negotiating favorable terms.
  • Strong Demand for Well-maintained, Fairly-Priced Homes – While overall buyer demand may not be what it was in the past couple of years, many sellers are still seeing competition for homes that are well-priced and move-in ready in prime locations. Buyers feeling the pressure of affordability will likely be choosier and less willing to shell out the big bucks for a less-than-ideal home.

What does this mean for sellers?

While we’ve identified April 16-22 as the best week to list for sellers, the housing market remains undersupplied, so a seller listing a well-priced, move-in ready home is likely to find success. Because spring is generally the high season for real estate activity and buyers are more plentiful earlier rather than later in the year, listing earlier in the spring raises a seller’s odds of a successful sale. Sellers will want to remember that it’s a process. In a recent survey we explored the steps sellers took to prepare their home for sale and how long it took them to get ready.

What does this mean for home buyers?

For buyers who have been facing still-high home prices, and elevated mortgage rates, there is a key takeaway: the usual seasonal dynamics of the housing market, builder sentiment, and seller sentiment suggest that it’s going to get better. Inventory improved in 2022, and continues to grow year-over-year, though lags pre-pandemic levels. However, so far in 2023, seller, builder and buyer sentiment have all improved, signaling that all parties involved are feeling a bit more optimistic about the housing market as we enter the spring. 

Historically, the number of views per listing has cooled in the late summer/early fall and tends to improve for buyers from that point forward. Additionally, by mid-August, the number of sellers with actively-listed homes increased 32% over the beginning of the year, which means more options for buyers. Thus, buyers who can persist in their home searches are likely to catch a bit of a break in the sense that they can expect some more options to choose from in the weeks ahead.

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